Welcome to Chicago 312: 3 Headlines. 1 Big Question. 2 Red Flags. Every Wednesday. Subscribe here.

What To Know This Week — Pritzker, Johnson, and basically every politician with a pulse lined up to say no to Trump’s Guard invasion — but ICE raids are still planned around Mexican Independence Day. While Chicago just had its safest summer since 1965, and scientists say the Atlantic Ocean is… breaking, which I didn’t know what possible. Here we go:

3 Headlines:

1. National Guard in Chicago: what’s planned, what’s legal, what the hell…

ABC7 Chicago: Trump promised to deploy the National Guard to Chicago, a the test case for whether Trump can override governors and uhh… many, many laws.

He labelled Chicago a “hellhole” and national media manufactured consent through lazy panic reporting on Labor Day violence over the weekend while Trump seemed dead (more on that later). Every local politician + state politician is saying there’s been no invitation to the National Guard and lawsuits would be in the works. This is not normal, and we can’t pretend, as Gov. Pritzker said at yesterday’s press conference. The President has broad control over D.C. (not to mention a freakily cooperative Mayor) ; but this would be an extraordinary federal push into the country’s third-largest city.

At press time (or at least my press time, which is arbitrary and random), Capitol Fax was reporting actual opposition may have scared Trump off for now, or at least enough to pretend to consider other places like New Orleans with more ‘friendly’ political officials. It seems, regardless, DHS is planning ICE raids targeting Latino community events—specifically, Mexican Independence Day gatherings like El Grito and the Pilsen parade.

Why It Matters: A loser who craves spectacle is dangerous, but apparently, potentially, is best responded to with more embarrassing spectacle. Can Trump can use federal dollars and federal muscle to humiliate blue cities, scare immigrant communities, and override anyone who tells him no? We’re about to find out!

It’s worth remembering that every raid, every Guard bunkered at Great Lakes, every single day that is money not going to transit, schools, or mental health care. Take action.

2. Chicago just had its safest summer since 1965.

WBEZ: The “Chicago chaos” frame is being used to justify federal deployments and funding threats, while recording only 123 murders across June–August, the lowest for those months since 1965. Overall violent crime remains near a four-decade low. BUT~ if you only watch national shout-shows, you’d think we’re living in The Purge. This is why I keep writing about how right-wing media baits Chicago — distortion drives this theater.

Why It Matters: If someone tries selling the “chaos in Chicago” story to you, remind them… none of this is true. The real issues are federal overreach, budget mismanagement, and media distortion.

3. $231M spent on police misconduct so far this year.

WTTW: Chicago has paid out over $231M to settle police misconduct lawsuits in just seven months—nearly triple its annual budget.

In this article, Corporation Counsel Richardson-Lowry argues that it’s cheaper to settle misconduct cases early than to drag them out, and it means the city avoids piling on $100K per case in extra legal costs. It’s important to say that no matter what legal strategy you use, the problem isn’t the billable hours or the interest on settlements — it’s the fact that CPD keeps generating an endless pipeline of brutality, harassment, and unconstitutional behavior that costs Chicago hundreds of millions every single year.

All while pensions, plugging the $771M transit hole, or expanding mental health services — all of which have actual multipliers for jobs, health, and safety — get painted as reckless overspending.

Why This Matters: These payouts are the cost of a department that the city refuses to rein in. And every dollar that goes to settling misconduct is a dollar that could’ve gone to buses, schools, or community safety…

1 Big Question: Is This a Good Idea?

Let me know how their promo would go in the comments.

2 Red Flags Stressing Me Out Today: 

1. Climate Alarm: Atlantic Conveyor Collapse Is No Long Shot Anymore

Guardian: A just-released study in Environmental Research Letters shows the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—that ocean “conveyor belt” warming Northern Europe and regulating global climate—is now not unlikely to collapse, possibly within a century. Collapse becomes increasingly probable under all emissions scenarios, including, potentially, in just a few decades.

Translation: the thing that helps stabilize weather worldwide could unravel within a century, or even a few decades.

Why it matters to Chicago: Doomerist? Maybe. But also… true. For a city with a failing drainage system, rising lake levels, and an underfunded transit network, unpredictable weather and new flooding patterns can quickly become existential. Cool.

2. Trump Isn’t Dead But At Least We Got a Nice Break

Garbage Day: If you missed it, over Labor Day weekend, X.com convinced itself Donald Trump had died. We really needed it.

Getty images of Trump’s swollen, concealer-caked hand spiraled into full-blown panic and joy (mostly joy), and strategists, pool reporters, and AI-enhanced blurry forehead truthers all piled in. Many people had a great time, I hope.

Why This Matters: Garbage Day calls this phenomenon LOLgislation, or, horrifyingly, policy and politics driven by X. I’m constantly talking about the Chicago Right Wing Flywheel because it’s under-covered, and because it’s driving the shift where courts, laws, or governance matter far less than about feeding content back into itself until people believe it. The National Guard rumors, the ICE drills, even the naval base chatter all sit inside that same logic: not “what’s real,” but “what goes viral”. …At least this one was kinda fun.

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That’s it this week: National Guard fighting, police lawsuits bleeding the budget, and the ocean maybe folding like a CTA accordion bus. Happy Wednesday!!

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